167 
WTNT41 KNHC 252033
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026
900 PM GMT Fri Sep 25 2026

The convective organization for Fay has taken a turn downward as 
wind shear and dry air have started to impact the system. The most 
recent TAFB Dvorak fix was a 2.5/35 kt and the objective intensity 
from UW-CIMSS is in the range of 37-47 kt. Therefore, the initial 
intensity has been lowered to 45 kt for this advisory.

The cyclone is expected to gradually weaken as the shear and dry 
air build over the cyclone. The statistical GFS/ECMWF SHIPS 
intensity guidance indicates that the northerly shear will continue 
to increase over the next several hours. The wind shear will make 
it easier for the dry air to penetrate the core of the cyclone and 
hinder the development of convection. The simulated ECMWF and GFS 
satellite imagery show that Fay loses its convection towards the 
end of the weekend, at which point it would become a post-tropical 
remnant low. However it is possible that this could occur sooner 
given the intensity of the wind shear being over 20 kt and mid-level 
relative humidity less than 40 percent. The current NHC intensity 
forecast is in line with the guidance suite including the HCCA and 
GDMI forecast aids.

Fay's initial motion is estimated to be west-southwest, or 250/4 kt 
as the storm is being steered by a subtropical ridge over the 
central Atlantic. The cyclone is expected to continue on a 
west-southwest to southwest heading through the the forecast period 
as the storm continues to weaken and become a vertically shallow 
remnant low steered by the low-level flow. The latest NHC track 
forecast is similar to the previous forecast, however the forward 
speed has been increased. The current forecast is still in good 
agreement with the GDMI ensemble mean and HCCA corrected consensus 
aids. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/2100Z 29.8N  43.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 29.7N  43.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  26/1800Z 29.5N  44.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  27/0600Z 29.1N  44.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  27/1800Z 28.5N  45.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  28/0600Z 27.6N  45.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  28/1800Z 26.9N  46.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  29/1800Z 26.1N  47.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Beven