Skip Navigation Links
NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Post-Tropical Cyclone Eleven Forecast Discussion


Home   Public Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  


000
WTNT41 KNHC 292044
TCDAT1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Eleven Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112022
500 PM AST Thu Sep 29 2022

The structure of the system this afternoon has continued to go 
downhill. The circulation fidelity has become increasingly diffuse 
and stretched out in a north-to-south fashion. What little deep 
convection remains is displaced about 100 n mi to the 
north-northeast of the center and also lacks sufficient organization 
to be considered a tropical cyclone. Therefore, this is the final 
advisory and the system is now considered to be a post-tropical 
remnant low, albeit one that is likely to open up into a surface 
trough at any time. 

In general the poorly-defined center still appears to be mostly on 
track, moving to the northwest at 320/12 kt. This general motion is 
expected to continue until the elongated circulation completely 
degenerates into a surface trough over the central Atlantic basin. 
A 12 hour point is mainly provided for continuity purposes, which 
lies along the fairly tightly clustered consensus aids. 

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at 
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/2100Z 19.1N  38.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  30/0600Z 20.6N  39.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin