662 
WTNT41 KNHC 221447
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026
300 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 2026

Fay is currently comprised of a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds 
with no convection. A recent ASCAT-B overpass indicates that the 
maximum winds are now near 30 kt, and based on this the cyclone is 
downgraded to a tropical depression. Unless convection comes back 
in the next several hours, Fay should degenerate into a remnant low 
later today.

The system is moving southwestward, or 230/9 kt, as it rounds the
eastern periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge to its west. A turn 
toward the west-southwest and then the west is expected over the 
next day or two as the ridge strengthens and builds eastward to the 
north of Fay. Due to a slight southward shift in the guidance 
envelope, the new track forecast is a little south of the previous 
forecast.

Currently, Fay is in an environment of moderate northwesterly shear 
and dry air entrainment. While the dynamical models forecast the 
shear to subside during the next 24 h, they also forecast strong 
upper-level convergence over the system and continued dry air 
entrainment. Based on this and the model simulated satellite 
imagery, it appears unlikely that Fay will re-develop persistent 
organized convection after the shear decreases. Thus, the new 
intensity forecast follows the old forecast in showing a gradual 
weakening of the remnant low until dissipation near 120 h.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/1500Z 31.1N  34.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 30.5N  35.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  23/1200Z 29.9N  37.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  24/0000Z 29.5N  39.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/1200Z 29.4N  41.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  25/0000Z 29.5N  43.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/1200Z 29.5N  44.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/1200Z 30.0N  46.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven