000
WTNT41 KNHC 270236
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026
300 AM GMT Sun Sep 27 2026

Although convection around Fay continues to pulsate, the storm's 
overall structure has degraded. Vertical wind shear has displaced 
the convection to the south of the fully exposed low-level center. 
The latest objective Dvorak analysis from UW-CIMSS estimates Fay's 
intensity between 30 and 35 kt. With the latest ASCAT pass 
only clipping the storm's western flank, the initial intensity was 
held steady at 30 kt, mostly to compensate for brief periods of 
intensification under these convective pulses.

Forward speed has slowed to a crawl, with the initial motion set at 
190/2 kt. Steering flow is very weak as Fay remains embedded 
within the southern flank of the Atlantic subtropical high. Track 
models continue to converge towards a solution, depicting Fay 
turning southwest and then westward heading into early next week as 
it is picked up by the prevailing easterlies. The latest NHC track 
forecast was little changed from the previous advisory, reflecting 
only a slight eastward shift to blend better with HCCA guidance.

Fay's fate will depend on just how long this latest round of 
nocturnal convection will last. Simulated satellite imagery from 
global models suggest that these convective pulses may continue 
into early next week.  However, it is possible that Fay could 
become post-tropical sooner than currently forecast.  The latest 
intensity forecast was essentially unchanged, depicting a relatively 
steady system on the verge of becoming post-tropical as vertical 
wind shear continues to inhibit Fay's chances of convective 
redevelopment.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/0300Z 29.6N  43.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  27/1200Z 29.4N  43.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  28/0000Z 28.4N  43.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  28/1200Z 27.4N  43.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  29/0000Z 25.8N  44.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  29/1200Z 24.6N  46.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  30/0000Z 24.0N  47.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Evans/Hagen