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Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Forecast Discussion


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WTNT41 KNHC 192041
TCDAT1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162019
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor made landfall along on
St. Vincent Island, Florida, around 1730 UTC. Since then, that
center has moved inland over the Florida Panhandle between
Apalachicola and Tallahassee. However, during the past hour, a new
center appears to have formed farther west along a quasi-occluded
frontal boundary. The earlier 40-45 kt winds over water have moved
inland and weakened, and the initial intensity of 35 kt is based on
a recent wind report of a sustained wind of 33 kt at 5-meters
elevation from NOAA buoy 41008/Gray's Reef, Georgia.

The initial motion estimate is now northeastward or 055/20 kt.
Nestor is forecast to move northeastward over the next 36 hours or
so, followed by a turn toward the east once the cyclone reaches the
North Carolina Outer Banks. On days 2 an 3, upper-level support is
expected to weaken and lift out to the northeast, leaving a
weakening extratropical cyclone Nestor behind. The cyclone should
then dissipate or merge with another frontal system by 96 h offshore
of the U.S. east coast. The new official forecast track is similar
to the previous advisory, and lies close to the center of the
tightly packed model guidance envelope.

Some slight strengthening is expected on Sunday,  mainly due to the
robust circulation moving out over the warm waters of the far
western Atlantic where less friction will affect the cyclone. The
official intensity foreast closely follows an average of the 1200
UTC GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF global model intensity forecasts.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on
Nestor.  Additional information on this system can be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

Key Messages:

1. Gale-force winds will gradually develop over the Atlantic waters
and along the coasts northeastern Florida and Georgia tonight, and
spread northward to the Carolinas on Sunday.

2. Isolated flash flooding is possible across the southeastern
United States into Sunday.

3. Wind and coastal flooding hazards along the U.S. East Coast will
be covered by non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local NWS
offices, since the system is expected to lose its tropical
characteristics after it moves inland along the Gulf Coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 30.4N  84.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  20/0600Z 32.3N  81.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  20/1800Z 35.0N  76.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  21/0600Z 36.8N  72.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  21/1800Z 36.8N  68.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  22/1800Z 36.5N  65.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart