402 
WTNT41 KNHC 240238
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026
300 AM GMT Thu Sep 24 2026

Deep convection has persisted since the previous advisory, 
especially to the north and northeast of the surface center.  Recent 
microwave and geostationary satellite data indicate fairly good 
confidence that the center is near the southern or southwestern edge 
of the convection.  The latest TAFB Dvorak intensity estimate is 
2.5/35 kt and recent objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS 
range from 33-42 kt.  A pair of ASCAT passes from around 23/2300 UTC 
showed several reliable 32 kt wind vectors.  Given the low bias of 
the ASCAT instrument due to its resolution, the initial intensity is 
raised to 35 kt, in agreement with the TAFB estimate, making Fay a 
tropical storm again.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-southwestward, or 250 
degrees at 8 kt.  Fay is expected to continue moving generally 
westward for the next few days as it is steered by a narrow low- to 
mid-level ridge to its north, although a deceleration is expected in 
a couple of days as steering currents weaken.  The NHC forecast is 
very similar to the previous one, and is fairly close to, but 
slightly faster toward the west than, the latest GDMI and HCCA.  
Confidence in the NHC track forecast appears to be above average due 
to good agreement among the track models.

Fay is forecast to remain over warm water and within a weak vertical 
wind shear environment for another 36 hours, but the dry airmass 
that Fay is embedded in, with mid-level relative humidity values 
between 30 and 40 percent, should prevent significant strengthening. 
The NHC forecast shows little change in strength while the shear 
remains weak.  By 48 hours, increasing northeasterly vertical wind 
shear should work to induce gradual weakening.  The NHC forecast is 
a little higher than the previous one, in that it shows a more 
gradual weakening in the 36 to 72 hour period.  The NHC forecast is 
near the middle of the guidance envelope, and forecast confidence is 
medium to high.  No changes have been made to the timing of 
post-tropical transition or dissipation, but it should be noted that 
the UKMET and Canadian models hold onto the low a bit longer than 
indicated in the NHC forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/0300Z 29.8N  40.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 29.8N  41.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 29.9N  42.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 29.9N  43.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 29.7N  44.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  26/1200Z 29.6N  44.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  27/0000Z 29.8N  45.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen