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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Discussion


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490 
WTNT41 KNHC 222037
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112018
500 PM AST Sat Sep 22 2018

Since the last advisory was issued, deep convection decreased in
association with the depression to the point that it was not
classifiable with the Dvorak technique at 18Z. However, there are a
couple of patches of thunderstorms that have developed recently,
and if they persist they could help the system hold on to tropical
cyclone status a bit longer. The low-level center remains exposed
with UW-CIMSS now analyzing nearly 45 kt of westerly shear over the
cyclone. Gradual spin down is expected during the next 12 to 24
hours, and the cyclone should become a remnant low by Sunday. Global
model fields show the surface circulation dissipating by 36 hours
and that is indicated in the official forecast.

The low-level center has been moving erratically today, with a
recent northward jog seen, but the long-term initial motion estimate
is 305/03. The weakening cyclone should be steered west-
northwestward by a weak low-level ridge through dissipation, and
the NHC track forecast has been nudged northward toward the latest
multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 13.6N  53.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 13.9N  54.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  23/1800Z 14.4N  56.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan