000
WTNT41 KNHC 202035
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026
900 PM GMT Sun Sep 20 2026
 
A few more convective bursts have occurred near the center of Fay in 
the last couple of hours as seen in the visible satellite imagery. 
Infrared satellite imagery indicates that some of the cloud tops 
have cooled to near -70 degrees C with the latest batch of 
convection.  The current objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS 
are in the range of 45-51 kt, and the most recent TAFB Dvorak fix 
was a T3.5/55 kt. Based on the given data, the initial intensity has 
been raised to 55 kt, on the upper end of the satellite estimates. 

The environment that Fay is located in still has moisture for 
additional convective development and an approaching mid- to 
upper-level trough should allow for Fay to further intensify for 
about 12 hours or so. Once the trough lifts on Monday, wind shear 
should increase and dry air should find its way into the cyclone. 
This will lead to a gradual weakening of Fay. The current NHC 
intensity forecast calls for Fay to become a post-tropical remnant 
low by Tuesday and then dissipate near the end of the week. The 
intensity forecast is still a little higher than the model guidance 
in the short term as Fay's structure is over performing expectations 
due to the expected baroclinic support from the trough. It is still 
possible that Fay could reach hurricane strength sometime tonight. 

Fay is still moving slowly and off toward the north-northeast, with 
the initial motion estimated around 020/5 kt. This general motion is 
expected to continue for about 12 hours or. However, a low- to 
mid-level ridge is expected to build to the north by Monday. This 
ridge in turn will force Fay to turn southwestward and gradually 
accelerate over the course of the forecast period. The current NHC 
forecast track is similiar to the previous track forecast with a few 
minor adjustments and remains in good agreement with the HCCA and 
GDMI track aids. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/2100Z 34.4N  32.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  21/0600Z 34.3N  32.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  21/1800Z 33.6N  32.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  22/0600Z 32.5N  33.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  22/1800Z 31.4N  35.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  23/0600Z 30.5N  36.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  23/1800Z 29.8N  38.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  24/1800Z 29.0N  42.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Pasch