697 
WTNT41 KNHC 180249
TCDAT1
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012026
1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Surface observations indicated that the center of Arthur re-formed 
near Galveston around 21-22Z in response to an offshore convective 
burst. Since that time, there has been no organized convection near 
the center, and the circulation has become elongated along the Upper 
Texas coast. Based on these developments, and the expectation that 
organized convection will not reform near the center, Arthur is no 
longer a tropical cyclone and is being downgraded to a post-tropical 
low with 30 kt winds.

While the motion is a bit uncertain due to the center reformation, 
it appears that the system is starting to move a bit faster toward 
the northeast with the initial motion estimated at 040/8 kt.  A 
general northeastward motion is expected until the surface center 
dissipates tonight over southeastern Texas or southwestern 
Louisiana. After that, the remnants of Arthur should move east- 
northeastward across the southeastern United States and emerge into 
the Atlantic on Friday. A continued east-northeastward motion out to 
sea is expected thereafter.

As mentioned, the surface center of Arthur is expected to dissipate 
later tonight. The global models suggest that the surface center 
could reform near the Atlantic coast on Friday, with some 
intensification possible as the system moves out to sea. It is 
unclear at this time whether this re-development will be due to 
tropical cyclone processes or baroclinic process. However, marine 
gale warnings are being issued for portions of the western Atlantic 
in anticipation of this development.
 
Even though Arthur is no longer a tropical cyclone, heavy rainfall 
and life-threatening flash flooding will continue to be a major 
hazard for the next few days across the southeastern United States. 
There is also an increased tornado threat for portions of the 
southeastern U.S. through Thursday.

That is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on 
this system. Rainfall forecasts for the remnants of Arthur in the 
United States can be found at 
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml and outlooks of flash 
flood risks can be found at 
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php
.
Marine forecasts, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas 
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header 
NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at 
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php. 
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Potentially life-threatening flash flooding and urban flooding 
are likely through Friday across southern Louisiana, southern 
Mississippi, southern Alabama, southwestern Georgia, and the Florida 
Panhandle. Scattered minor river flooding is expected, with the 
potential for isolated moderate to major river flooding. Ongoing 
heavy rainfall could prolong the flood threat through the weekend.
 
2. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force could occur along portions 
of the Louisiana coast tonight.
 
3. Coastal flooding along the coasts of Texas and Louisiana should 
gradually subside later tonight and Thursday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/0300Z 29.7N  94.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven