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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Discussion


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449 
WTNT41 KNHC 171706
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Eleven Special Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112019
1200 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Satellite, radar, and surface data show that the area of low
pressure near the Upper Texas coast has become better defined this
morning.  The associated deep convection has also become better
organized, and winds from the Houston Doppler Radar support
an initial intensity of 30 kt.  Based on these data, advisories are
being initiated on a tropical depression.  The system has very
little time left over water in which to strengthen, but given the
recent increase in organization, the system is forecast to become a
tropical storm before it moves inland.  As a result, a Tropical
Storm Warning has been issued for a portion of the Upper Texas
coast.  Regardless of the intensity of the system, the primary
threat associated is flooding rainfall that is expected over
portions of eastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana over the next
day or two.

The initial motion estimate is 005/6 kt. The cyclone should move
inland very soon, and a general northward motion around the western
side of a mid-level ridge centered over the Tennessee Valley should
continue through tonight.  The system is forecast to turn north-
northwestward on Wednesday and that general motion is forecast to
continue until dissipation occurs.  The NHC track forecast follows
the solution of the majority of the dynamical models.

Key Messages:

1. This system is likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding
along portions of the Upper Texas Coast, including the Houston and
Galveston areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1700Z 28.7N  95.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  18/0000Z 29.4N  95.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  18/1200Z 30.1N  95.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  19/0000Z 30.7N  95.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  19/1200Z 31.3N  96.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown