000
WTNT41 KNHC 192034
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026
900 PM GMT Sat Sep 19 2026
 
A new burst of convection has formed over the depression, that
mostly covers the center of the system. However, the bulk of the
convection is still on the northern side of the cyclone at this
time, implying that some wind shear is still affecting it. The most 
recent TAFB Dvorak fix was T2.0/30 kt, which is the same as the 
previous cycle. Therefore, the initial intensity remains at 30 kt 
for this advisory. 
 
Tropical Depression Six is still moving slowly, but has started to 
show a bit more motion towards the north-northeast. The cyclone 
should move more northeastward for roughly the next 36 h as a 
trough to the north weakens a low- to mid-level ridge to the 
northeast. Following this, at around 48 h, the ridge should build 
back towards the west, which in turn will force the cyclone to move 
southwestward for the rest of the forecast period. The current NHC 
forecast track is very similar to the previous forecast track with 
small adjustments to the track and speed, and remains in good 
agreement with HCCA and GDMI.

The cyclone should move into a slightly more favorable environment, 
between two areas of intense shear, and so there a good chance for 
intensification to occur for the next day or so. After 36 h, the 
system should move into an area of higher shear as the previously 
mentioned trough moves closer. This should lead to a gradual 
weakening of the system. The depression is expected to become a 
post-tropical remnant low around 72 h, and then dissipate around 
120 h. There is still some uncertainty in the forecast of when the 
cyclone will become post-tropical and then dissipate, as both could 
possibly occur sooner than what is currently forecast. The new NHC 
intensity forecast is still in the middle of the guidance envelope, 
and is closely align with HCCA and just under GDMI for peak 
intensity. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/2100Z 32.9N  33.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 33.3N  33.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 33.8N  32.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  21/0600Z 33.7N  32.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  21/1800Z 32.9N  32.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  22/0600Z 31.7N  33.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  22/1800Z 30.5N  34.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  23/1800Z 28.6N  38.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Berg