Skip Navigation Links
NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Subtropical Depression Andrea Forecast Discussion


Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  


000
WTNT41 KNHC 211435
TCDAT1

Subtropical Depression Andrea Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012019
1100 AM AST Tue May 21 2019

As expected, Andrea is likely to be a short-lived event.  The
cyclone's cloud pattern has continued to degrade, and Andrea is now
essentially devoid of deep convection.  In fact, at first glance,
the upper-level low to the southwest of the center appears to be
the most dominant feature.  Based on the lack of convection and a
buoy observation not far to the north of Andrea, the system is
being downgraded to a subtropical depression.  Since the cyclone is
expected to remain under the influence of the upper low and in and
environment of dry mid-level air for the next day or so, Andrea is
likely to degenerate into a remnant low pressure area in a day or
less.

The system has moved a little more to the north than previously
estimated and the initial motion is 360/7.  Upper-level westerlies
should cause the cyclone to turn eastward in 12-24 hours until
dissipation.  The official track forecast is similar to but a
little slower than the dynamical model consensus, TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/1500Z 30.8N  69.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z 31.5N  67.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  22/1200Z 31.7N  66.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch