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Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette Forecast Discussion


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000
WTNT41 KNHC 230236
TCDAT1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette Discussion Number  44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172020
300 AM GMT Wed Sep 23 2020

Paulette has been devoid of deep convection since early Tuesday,
and the shallow convection mentioned in the previous advisory has
also waned.  Therefore, Paulette has again become a post-tropical
cyclone, and this is the last NHC advisory on this system.  Recent 
ASCAT data showed that the system still had a small area of 35 kt 
winds so the initial intensity is held at that value.  The 
post-tropical cyclone will be moving over waters of 22-23 degrees 
Celsius and remain within an area of moderate vertical wind 
shear.  This should result in gradual weakening over the next 
couple of days.

The post-tropical cyclone continues to move eastward or 080/10 kt.
This motion is forecast to continue through midday Wednesday, but a
reduction is forward speed is expected by Wednesday night as the 
system becomes vertically shallow.  The remnant low is expected to 
turn southward in 24-36 hours, with a faster west-southwestward 
motion anticipated later in the forecast period when it becomes 
embedded within the low-level northeasterly flow.

This is the last NHC advisory on Paulette.  Additional information
on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo
France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
metarea2.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 34.8N  20.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  23/1200Z 35.2N  18.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  24/0000Z 35.4N  17.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  24/1200Z 35.1N  17.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  25/0000Z 34.0N  19.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  25/1200Z 33.0N  21.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  26/0000Z 32.5N  26.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown