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Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion


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000
WTNT41 KNHC 100239
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062020
1100 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the
circulation center of Fay is elongated northeast-southwest, with
satellite and radar data showing a strong convective cluster at the
northeastern end of the elongation.  There have been no
observations near the center during the past few hours, and the
initial intensity is held at 40 kt based mainly on continuity from
the previous advisory.  An Air Force reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is currently enroute to investigate Fay.

Due to the elongated center and the possibility the center is
trying to re-form near the convection, the initial motion is a
somewhat uncertain 010/7.  There is no change to the forecast
philosophy from the previous advisory, and essentially no change to
the forecast track.  Fay is expected to move generally northward
between a high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic and an
approaching mid-latitude trough for 24-36 h, followed by a turn
toward the north-northeast until dissipation between 60-72 h.  The
guidance is in generally good agreement with this scenario, and the
new forecast lies close to the various consensus models.

Fay is currently over the Gulf Stream and within an area of light
to moderate westerly shear caused by an upper-level trough to its
west and southwest.  This is producing an environment that should
allow a little strengthening for the next 12-24 h.  After that, the
storm should weaken as it passes over cooler waters north of the
Gulf Stream, followed by landfall over the northeastern United
States.  The new intensity forecast follows the trend of the
previous forecast in calling for extratropical transition between
48-60 h and dissipation shortly thereafter.

Key Messages:

1. Fay is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated
totals of 8 inches along and near the track across the mid-Atlantic
states into southeast New York and southern New England. These rains
may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur.
Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time.

2. Tropical storm conditionsare expected along portions of the
mid-Atlantic and northeast coast Friday and Friday night, and a
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coasts of New Jersey,
New York and Connecticut, including Long Island.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0300Z 36.3N  74.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  10/1200Z 37.7N  74.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  11/0000Z 39.9N  74.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  11/1200Z 43.0N  73.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  12/0000Z 46.7N  71.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 60H  12/1200Z 50.2N  69.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven