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Hurricane Lorena Wind Speed Probabilities


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000
FOPZ15 KNHC 202101
PWSEP5

HURRICANE LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  14                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152019               
2100 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019                                            

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H.                                         

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

SAN DIEGO CA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

YUMA AZ        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

ENSENADA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   X(10)   X(10)

IS GUADALUPE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   X(11)   X(11)

PUNTA EUGENIA  34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)  16(20)  14(34)   X(34)   X(34)
PUNTA EUGENIA  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   6(13)   X(13)   X(13)
PUNTA EUGENIA  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

P ABREOJOS     34  X   3( 3)  16(19)  12(31)   5(36)   X(36)   X(36)
P ABREOJOS     50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
P ABREOJOS     64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

CABO SAN LUCAS 34 64   1(65)   X(65)   1(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  6   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

SAN JOSE CABO  34 99   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SAN JOSE CABO  50 77   1(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)
SAN JOSE CABO  64  5   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

LA PAZ         34 64  18(82)   X(82)   1(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)
LA PAZ         50 29  17(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)
LA PAZ         64  4   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

LORETO         34  X  43(43)  21(64)   2(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)
LORETO         50  X   9( 9)  14(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
LORETO         64  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

P PENASCO      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   X(12)   X(12)

HERMOSILLO     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

BAHIA KINO     34  X   2( 2)  14(16)  20(36)   7(43)   X(43)   X(43)
BAHIA KINO     50  X   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   2(15)   X(15)   X(15)
BAHIA KINO     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

GUAYMAS        34  X   3( 3)  20(23)   7(30)   4(34)   X(34)   X(34)
GUAYMAS        50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
GUAYMAS        64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

HUATABAMPO     34  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

LOS MOCHIS     34  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

25N 115W       34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

30N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA