000
FOPZ12 KNHC 230238
PWSEP2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM VANCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222026               
0300 UTC FRI OCT 23 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 10.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
15N 105W       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  20(22)  31(53)   3(56)   2(58)
15N 105W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  16(18)   3(21)   X(21)
15N 105W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   2(10)   X(10)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)  11(23)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
BARRA NAVIDAD  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  24(34)  13(47)
MANZANILLO     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   7(16)
MANZANILLO     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
L CARDENAS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)  12(26)   7(33)
L CARDENAS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
L CARDENAS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   7(15)   5(20)
ZIHUATANEJO    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
15N 100W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   2( 6)
 
ACAPULCO       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER GIBBS