000
FOPZ12 KNHC 241453
PWSEP2
                                                                    
HURRICANE VANCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  13                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222026               
1500 UTC SAT OCT 24 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H.                                        
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
15N 105W       34  2  37(39)  13(52)   2(54)   5(59)   X(59)   X(59)
15N 105W       50  X   3( 3)   8(11)   3(14)   3(17)   X(17)   1(18)
15N 105W       64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)   2(14)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)  18(27)  11(38)   3(41)
MANZANILLO     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)   1(11)
MANZANILLO     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
L CARDENAS     34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   6(13)  10(23)   5(28)   1(29)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   5(12)   2(14)   X(14)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN