000
FOPZ12 KNHC 220847
PWSEP2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM VANCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222026               
0900 UTC THU OCT 22 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 9.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
 
10N 105W       34  X   5( 5)   6(11)   3(14)   1(15)   X(15)   1(16)
10N 105W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
10N 105W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
15N 105W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  60(64)  21(85)   1(86)
15N 105W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  31(31)  29(60)   4(64)
15N 105W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)  24(40)   3(43)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  15(18)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)  23(34)
MANZANILLO     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)
MANZANILLO     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
L CARDENAS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   9(14)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)
 
10N 100W       34  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
15N 100W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
15N 110W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
20N 110W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER EVANS/GIBBS