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Tropical Storm Humberto Wind Speed Probabilities


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FONT14 KNHC 150855
PWSAT4

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092019
0900 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)

CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   6(11)   X(11)   X(11)

CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

NEW RIVER NC   34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)   5(14)   1(15)   X(15)

MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)   5(14)   X(14)   X(14)

SURF CITY NC   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

WILMINGTON NC  34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

BALD HEAD ISL  34  2   3( 5)   4( 9)   4(13)   4(17)   X(17)   X(17)

FLORENCE SC    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

LITTLE RIVER   34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

MYRTLE BEACH   34  2   3( 5)   4( 9)   3(12)   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)

GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

CHARLESTON SC  34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

BEAUFORT MCAS  34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

SAVANNAH GA    34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

KINGS BAY GA   34  1   1( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

WAYCROSS GA    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

MAYPORT NS FL  34  3   4( 7)   3(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)

JACKSONVILLE   34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

GAINESVILLE FL 34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

DAYTONA BEACH  34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

THE VILLAGES   34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

ORLANDO FL     34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

COCOA BEACH FL 34  3   5( 8)   4(12)   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)

PATRICK AFB    34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

FT PIERCE FL   34  3   4( 7)   4(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)

W PALM BEACH   34  3   3( 6)   4(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)

FT LAUDERDALE  34  2   4( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

CEDAR KEY FL   34  2   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  75(77)   5(82)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  48(48)   6(54)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  26(26)   4(30)

GRAND BAHAMA   34  4   6(10)   4(14)   3(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34  3   3( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

$$
FORECASTER BROWN