Tropical Storm Melissa Wind Speed Probabilities
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000
FONT13 KNHC 240237
PWSAT3
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
0300 UTC FRI OCT 24 2025
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)
FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11)
MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10)
KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)
GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 16(19)
ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 10(14)
GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 4( 7)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20)
ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)
ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 25(34)
CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17)
CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11)
CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 7(15) 18(33)
CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12)
CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 10(20) 4(24) 5(29)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 21(29) 18(47)
GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 15(24)
GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 22(33) 35(68) 11(79) 4(83)
MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 26(31) 12(43) 6(49)
MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 10(24) 4(28)
KINGSTON 34 1 6( 7) 28(35) 33(68) 21(89) 3(92) 1(93)
KINGSTON 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 22(27) 29(56) 6(62) 1(63)
KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 22(31) 5(36) 2(38)
LES CAYES 34 1 8( 9) 13(22) 8(30) 6(36) 2(38) 2(40)
LES CAYES 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6)
LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 1 5( 6) 7(13) 5(18) 6(24) 1(25) 1(26)
CAPE BEATA 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) 3(14) 1(15) 1(16)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
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FORECASTER BEVEN
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