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Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Wind Speed Probabilities


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POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NESTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162019               
2100 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019                                            

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NESTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

WALLOPS CDA    34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

NORFOLK NAS    34  X   8( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)

NORFOLK VA     34  X   9( 9)   5(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)

OCEANA NAS VA  34  X  11(11)   7(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)

ELIZABETH CTY  34  X  26(26)   5(31)   X(31)   1(32)   X(32)   X(32)

RALEIGH NC     34  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

ROCKY MT NC    34  X  15(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)

CAPE HATTERAS  34  X  44(44)  15(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

FAYETTEVILLE   34  X  31(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)

CHERRY PT NC   34  X  61(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)
CHERRY PT NC   50  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

NEW RIVER NC   34  X  56(56)   1(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)
NEW RIVER NC   50  X   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

MOREHEAD CITY  34  X  60(60)   1(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

SURF CITY NC   34  X  66(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)
SURF CITY NC   50  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

WILMINGTON NC  34  X  68(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)
WILMINGTON NC  50  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

BALD HEAD ISL  34  X  64(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)
BALD HEAD ISL  50  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

FLORENCE SC    34 23  29(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)

COLUMBIA SC    34 27   2(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)

LITTLE RIVER   34  5  67(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)
LITTLE RIVER   50  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

MYRTLE BEACH   34 15  59(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

GEORGETOWN SC  34 32  41(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)
GEORGETOWN SC  50  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

CHARLESTON SC  34 66  11(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)
CHARLESTON SC  50  1   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

BEAUFORT MCAS  34 83   1(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)
BEAUFORT MCAS  50  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

AUGUSTA GA     34 27   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)

SAVANNAH GA    34 89   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)
SAVANNAH GA    50  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

KINGS BAY GA   34  8   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

WAYCROSS GA    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

TALLAHASSEE FL 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

ST MARKS FL    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART