000
WTPA45 PHFO 062031
TCDCP5
 
Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number  42
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP112026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Sun Sep 06 2026

Karina continues to lack deep convection as it moves through a dry 
airmass.  The latest subjective intensity estimates are a consensus 
35 kt from PHFO and JTWC, while objective intensity estimates range 
from 32-41 kt.  The initial intensity is reduced to 45 kt for this 
advisory.
 
Karina has slowed down and turned west-northwestward with an initial 
motion estimate of 300/5 kt.  A westward to west-northwestward 
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next 
day or so as Karina gets pulled westward by a mid-level low to its 
west and ridging builds in to the north of Karina.  The track 
forecast is similar to the previous one and is close to the HCCA and 
the GDMI.
 
Karina will continue moving through a very dry airmass, over the 
next day or two.  This, combined with a continuation of moderate 
west-southwesterly wind shear and sea-surface temperatures in the 
25-26C range should lead to continued weakening, and Karina is 
unlikely to redevelop any significant deep convection.  Therefore, 
the NHC forecast now calls for Karina to become post-tropical within 
the next 12 h.  The cyclone is likely to hold onto gale-force winds 
for another 24-30 h as it gradually spins down.  By Tuesday, the low 
should dissipate when it gets sheared apart by the combination of a 
powerful mid- to upper-level trough and outflow from Hurricane 
Lowell.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/2100Z 22.9N 145.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 23.0N 146.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  07/1800Z 23.3N 148.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  08/0600Z 23.9N 151.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen