000
WTPA44 PHFO 120235
TCDCP4
 
Tropical Storm Pena Discussion Number  22
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP042026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Wed Nov 11 2026

Satellite imagery indicates that Pena's convective structure has 
changed little over the past several hours. Deep convection 
continues to burst intermittently over and mostly east of the 
circulation center, with cloud-top temperatures as cold as -80 C. A 
1957 UTC Metop-B scatterometer pass revealed a highly asymmetric 
wind field, with the strongest winds over the northern semicircle, 
generally ranging from 30 to 35 kt. Given the steady satellite 
presentation and similar subjective and objective intensity 
estimates ranging from 30 to 40 kt, the initial intensity is held at 
40 kt.
 
The initial motion is westward, or 270/13 kt. Track guidance remains 
in good agreement over the next several days and shows Pena 
continuing westward as a strong low- to mid-level ridge remains to 
the north. The steering layer is expected to become increasingly 
shallow over the next few days as Pena gradually weakens. The latest 
NHC track forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous 
prediction.
 
Despite warm sea surface temperatures and light vertical wind shear, 
increasingly dry mid-level air is expected to contribute to a steady 
weakening trend beginning late tonight or early Thursday. Global 
models generally support this scenario and indicate that Pena will 
struggle to maintain persistent or organized deep convection as it 
weakens and eventually opens into a trough shortly after crossing 
the International Date Line into the western Pacific by early 
Saturday. The latest NHC intensity forecast is very close to the 
previous prediction and remains near the middle of the guidance 
envelope.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/0300Z  9.8N 170.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  12/1200Z  9.9N 172.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  13/0000Z 10.0N 175.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  13/1200Z 10.1N 178.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  14/0000Z 10.3N 179.1E   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs