000
WTPA44 PHFO 112033
TCDCP4
 
Tropical Storm Pena Discussion Number  21
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP042026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Wed Nov 11 2026
 
Over the last several hours, the structure of Pena has degraded and 
the most recent visible satellite imagery shows that the low-level 
center is exposed and to the southwest of the bulk of the 
convection. The low-level center is moving faster toward the west 
than the mid-level circulation, which is why the bulk of the deep 
convection is now located well to the east-northeast of the center. 
The current subjective Dvorak fixes from both JTWC and HFO are 
T2.5/35 kt, however the UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates are 
in the range of 27-42 kt. The initial intensity is being held at 40 
kt for this advisory, which could be a little generous at this time.
 
Pena's current motion is estimated to be 265/14 kt. High pressure 
centered over the subtropical Central Pacific continues to be the 
main steering mechanism, however the system is starting to 
accelerate westward and should continue to accelerate over the next 
couple of days. The current NHC track is similar to the previous 
track, with a small adjustment to the left of the previous track 
based on a blend of the GDMI and HCCA forecast aids. 
 
The current environment for Pena still has very warm waters, a good 
amount of moisture, and low vertical wind shear, but given the poor 
initial structure, strengthening is not expected. Instead, the 
cyclone is likely to maintain its intensity through tonight. By 
Thursday, a general weakening trend is expected as shear increases 
slightly and environmental moisture decreases slightly. These less 
favorable conditions are expected to persist over the system and the 
aforementioned increase in forward speed should result in the 
dissipation within the next few days, as the storm degrades into an 
open trough. Some model guidance indicates that dissipation could 
occur sooner than the current forecast indicates. The current NHC 
intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast, with 
dissipation moved up to 60 h, based on the model surface fields. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/2100Z  9.9N 169.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  12/0600Z 10.0N 171.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  12/1800Z 10.2N 174.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  13/0600Z 10.5N 177.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  13/1800Z 10.6N 179.6E   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Hagen