000
WTPA44 PHFO 101443
TCDCP4
 
Tropical Storm Pena Discussion Number  16
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP042026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Tue Nov 10 2026
 
Moderate southwesterly wind shear is affecting Pena this morning. A 
swirl of low clouds in evident on proxy-vis satellite imagery, 
although it is unclear whether this feature represents the low-level 
center emerging from beneath the core of the deep convection or is 
simply a transient feature. Earlier microwave imagery suggested that 
the center could be located farther north. Consequently, the initial 
location is more uncertain that usual, but has been adjusted 
southward. Deep convection persists, with cloud top temperatures 
colder than -80 C evident within the convective overcast. Recent 
objective and subjective intensity estimates range from 31-45 kt. 
Based on the recent satellite presentation, the initial intensity 
is maintained at 35 kt for this advisory. 

Pena is moving westward around 10 kt, steered by a low to mid-level 
ridge centered to the northwest of the cyclone, west of the 
International Date Line (IDL). This general motion is expected to 
continue over the next couple of days, followed by a slight increase 
in forward speed as a shortwave trough impinges on the ridge and 
progresses eastward. The official NHC forecast calls for Pena to 
cross the IDL late this week. Owing to the southward adjustment of 
the initial position, the track forecast has been shifted to the 
left of the previous forecast and is near the center of the track 
guidance. 

Despite moving over warm sea surface temperatures and within a moist 
mid-level environment, Pena has struggled to develop a deep, 
vertically aligned structure. Vertical wind shear could decrease 
over the next several days, potentially allowing for modest 
intensity fluctuations. However, only a few intensity models support 
any meaningful strengthening during this period. Later this week, an 
increasingly dry mid-level environment and a modest increase in wind 
shear are expected to promote weakening, and it is possible that 
Pena could degenerate into a remnant low or open into a trough 
before that time. The latest NHC forecast intensity remains 
unchanged through 72 h, and is near the middle of the guidance 
envelope. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/1500Z 11.1N 164.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  11/0000Z 10.8N 166.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  11/1200Z 10.6N 168.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  12/0000Z 10.6N 171.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  12/1200Z 11.0N 174.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  13/0000Z 11.5N 177.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  13/1200Z 11.8N 179.9E   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  14/1200Z 12.5N 174.8E   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  15/1200Z 12.9N 170.8E   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Adams