000
WTPA44 PHFO 090241
TCDCP4
 
Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number  52
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Tue Sep 08 2026
 
The structure of Lowell continues to deteriorate this afternoon as 
dry mid-level air and wind shear affect the tropical storm. The 
low-level center of circulation is now almost completely exposed, 
with deep convection displaced well to the north. In addition, a 
strong mid-level low is interacting with Lowell and is contributing 
to southwesterly to westerly wind shear across the system. Recent 
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates range from 55 to 65 kt, while 
objective estimates are somewhat lower, generally between 46 and 50 
kt. The initial intensity is set at 60 kt for this advisory. An 
earlier scatterometer pass also provided valuable guidance in 
refining Lowell's wind radii. 

Lowell is moving northward around 13 kt, steered primarily by the 
aforementioned mid-level low to the northwest and ridging to the 
north-northeast. A gradual turn toward the northwest is expected 
tonight through Wednesday as the low interacts with Lowell and high 
pressure builds to the north. The storm is forecast to slow down on 
Thursday as Lowell becomes increasingly shallow and begins to move 
more in response to the low-level flow. The track forecast becomes 
considerably more complex beyond 72 h as Lowell encounters another 
elongated upper-low approaching from the northwest. Most model 
guidance indicates that Lowell should turn toward the north or 
northwest late this week into this weekend, but there is 
considerable spread in the guidance regarding both the timing of 
this turn and how far north the cyclone will ultimately track. The 
latest NHC forecast remains on the southern side of the guidance 
envelope and is close to the previous track, with the forecast lying 
closest to HCCA and the Google DeepMind solutions. 
 
Moderate wind shear and unfavorable upper-level winds will continue 
to support gradual weakening of Lowell over the next several days. 
Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF suggest that 
Lowell could struggle to maintain organized deep convection by 
Thursday, potentially bringing the cyclone closer to becoming 
post-tropical on Friday. However, the second elongated upper-level 
low pressure system may help reinvigorate convection late Friday 
into Saturday, which could provide an opportunity for slight 
strengthening during that time. The latest NHC intensity forecast is 
very close to the previous advisory and calls for Lowell to become a 
post-tropical remnant low around day 5. Confidence in the 
longer-range track and intensity forecast is lower than average. 

 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Post-storm safety:  Follow advice of local officials and avoid 
areas of downed power lines and flooding. Ensure generators are 
properly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away from 
dwellings and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During 
clean up, be careful when using chainsaws and power tools. Drink 
plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion.
 
2. The threat of locally moderate to heavy rainfall associated with 
Lowell will linger over parts of the eastern Hawaiian Islands into 
Wednesday. This may result in additional flooding of urban and 
low-lying portions of the Big Island and may promote instances of 
new flooding or prolong any ongoing flooding elsewhere across the 
Islands.
 
3. Large waves will continue to produce life-threatening surf and 
rip current conditions during the next day or so along exposed 
coasts of the Hawaiian Islands.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0300Z 26.2N 161.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 27.7N 162.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 28.7N 164.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  10/1200Z 28.8N 166.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  11/0000Z 28.5N 169.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  11/1200Z 28.5N 170.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  12/0000Z 29.1N 171.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  13/0000Z 31.8N 172.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  14/0000Z 32.9N 175.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Adams