000
WTPA44 PHFO 082056
TCDCP4
 
Tropical Storm Pena Discussion Number   9
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP042026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Sun Nov 08 2026
 
Satellite imagery shows bursts of deep convection near the center, 
but they lack sustained curvature and organization, pulsing 
intermittently rather than consolidating. A trailing, broken curved 
band remains displaced to the east of the center, likely the result 
of light-to-moderate south-southwesterly vertical wind shear and 
upper-level outflow displacement. The latest subjective Dvorak 
intensity estimates from both PHFO and PGTW were T3.0/45 kt, while 
objective estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 31 to 43 kt. Given the 
latest satellite presentation and the spread in available data, the 
initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 270/10 kt. Pena 
is forecast to maintain a generally westward motion over the next 
several days while being steered by a low- to mid-level ridge 
anchored north of the system across the central Pacific. As this 
ridge shifts eastward, the cyclone is forecast to accelerate 
slightly while turning northwestward toward the end of the forecast 
period. The updated NHC track forecast closely mirrors the previous 
track and aligns with the latest HCCA aid.

Statistical SHIPS guidance suggests that Pena will remain in 
environmental conditions favorable for strengthening, characterized 
by warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs), light vertical wind shear, 
and high mid-level moisture. However, given its current lack of 
organization, the cyclone may struggle to consolidate an inner core 
and take advantage of these conditions, raising uncertainty 
regarding its long-term survival. The dynamical and statistical 
guidance reflects this dilemma, showing a wide spread that ranges 
from intensification into a hurricane to complete dissipation before 
the end of the forecast period. Consequently, forecast confidence 
remains lower than average. The updated NHC intensity forecast is 
largely unchanged from the previous advisory, keeping the cyclone in 
the middle of the multi-model envelope and below HCCA and GDMI 
consensus aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/2100Z 11.6N 157.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 11.6N 158.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 11.5N 160.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 11.4N 162.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  10/1800Z 11.4N 164.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  11/0600Z 11.3N 166.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  11/1800Z 11.3N 169.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  12/1800Z 12.1N 175.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  13/1800Z 14.2N 178.4E   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pierce/Adams