000
WTPA44 PHFO 071436
TCDCP4
 
Tropical Storm Pena Discussion Number   4
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP042026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Sat Nov 07 2026

Tropical Storm Pena appears somewhat better organized on the latest 
infrared satellite imagery, with persistent convective banding and 
potentially an incipient central dense overcast feature located near 
the suspected low-level center.  This improvement in structure 
appears to have not yet resulted in intensification, with the 
objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates tightly 
clustered around 45 kt.
 
The cyclone is currently moving westward at 275/11 kt, and this 
general motion is forecast to continue through the forecast period 
as Pena is steered by a large low- to mid-level ridge located to its 
north. The track guidance is in good agreement and the new forecast 
blends the previous one toward the latest Google DeepMind and HFIP 
Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA). Between 96 h and 120 h, Pena is 
forecast to accelerate and turn toward the northwest in response to 
an approaching upper-level shortwave trough.
 
The environment around and ahead of Pena is not horrible, but it is 
certainly not the best. In the short term, Pena is forecast to 
intensify somewhat as it moves across favorable sea surface 
temperatures and through a region of low vertical wind shear with 
sufficient mid-level moisture. Beyond 24 h, there are some 
indications that Pena could be contending with dry air intrusions 
and unfavorable upper-level winds, both of which would slow or limit 
intensification. There continues to be a large spread in the 
intensity guidance, with the ECMWF and SHIPS models insisting on 
slow intensification through the forecast period, Google DeepMind 
showing nearly no change in strength, and the GFS and regional 
hurricane models showing imminent weakening and even dissipation. In 
the absence of higher confidence, the new intensity forecast is 
largely unchanged from the previous one, except to show Pena 
intensifying to 55 kt at 12 h based on recent satellite trends and 
the aforementioned favorable short-term environment. The new 
forecast remains near the middle of the larger than normal guidance 
envelope, and is again of lower than normal confidence.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/1500Z 11.4N 153.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 11.5N 154.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 11.4N 156.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  09/0000Z 11.4N 157.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  09/1200Z 11.3N 159.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  10/0000Z 11.3N 161.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  10/1200Z 11.5N 163.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  11/1200Z 11.6N 168.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  12/1200Z 13.0N 174.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Mahoney