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WTPA44 PHFO 030244
TCDCP4
 
Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number  27
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Wed Sep 02 2026


Since the last advisory, Lowell's satellite signature has decayed,
with the cloud tops in the eyewall warming and the eye becoming
less distinct. This has been accompanied by a decrease in satellite
intensity estimates. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft has reported
700-mb flight-level winds of 135 kt and a minimum central pressure
near 932-933 mb. Based on these data and continuity from the 
previous advisory, the initial intensity is reduced to a possibly 
generous 135 kt. Satellite imagery gives the impression that the 
hurricane is being affected by easterly shear. However, if this is 
the case, the source of the shear is a bit mysterious, as the
available shear diagnostics show shear of less than 10 kt.
 
The initial motion is now 270/9 kt. Currently, Lowell is being
steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to the north, and due to this
the hurricane should continue moving westward for the next 2-3
days. After that, the track of the hurricane will be controlled by
a developing mid- to upper-level trough or low currently seen in
water vapor imagery near 32N 164W. During the next several days,
the global models forecast this feature to move eastward or
southeastward toward the Hawaiian Islands, then turn westward to
the north of Lowell. While this will break down the ridge north of
Lowell and allow it to turn northward, there is a wide spread of
possibilities of when and where this turn will occur. The model
consensus has again shifted a little eastward at day 4-5, and the
new forecast track is again nudged a little eastward at these times.
 
The hurricane is expected to stay in a favorable environment of
high oceanic heat content and low shear for at least the next three
days. However, the intensity guidance calls for slow decay during
this time despite the favorable environment. Based on this, the
intensity forecast also calls for slow decay. It is likely, though,
that eyewall replacement cycles will cause fluctuations in
intensity superimposed on the slow decay.  Near the end of the
forecast period, Lowell should start experiencing increasing shear
caused by the upper-level trough, and a more pronounced weakening
may begin around day 5. There remains high confidence that Lowell
will remain a major hurricane through the weekend.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. The details of Lowell's long-range track and intensity forecasts
are more uncertain than usual, and it is too soon to determine
potential impacts in the Hawaiian Islands.
 
2. Interests in Hawaii should continue to closely monitor the
progress of Lowell through this upcoming weekend. This is a good
time for all residents to ensure they have their hurricane plan and
supply kit in place.
 
3. Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions in portions of the Hawaiian Islands during
the next several days.  Depending on the exact track of the storm,
these swells are likely to increase early next week.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/0300Z 13.3N 155.2W  135 KT 155 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 13.4N 156.5W  135 KT 155 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 13.5N 158.1W  130 KT 150 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 13.5N 159.6W  125 KT 145 MPH
 48H  05/0000Z 13.6N 160.9W  125 KT 145 MPH
 60H  05/1200Z 13.7N 162.0W  125 KT 145 MPH
 72H  06/0000Z 14.2N 162.9W  125 KT 145 MPH
 96H  07/0000Z 15.5N 163.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
120H  08/0000Z 18.6N 162.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven