959 
WTPA43 PHFO 261436
TCDCP3
 
Tropical Depression Olana Discussion Number   5
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP032026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Mon Oct 26 2026
 
Olana's structure on satellite imagery has rapidly degraded early
this morning. The deep convection that had been near the center
yesterday has separated well off to the northeast, leaving behind a
broad low-level swirl that is south of the previous satellite
estimates. This degradation in structure is likely due to increasing
southwesterly vertical wind shear that has led to the circulation
decoupling vertically overnight. Consequently, subjective and
objective intensity estimates are decreasing, and Olana is being
downgraded to a tropical depression in this advisory with maximum
sustained winds of 30 kt.
 
As noted above, Olana's circulation has been moving south of the
previous forecast track, and the initial motion is slowly off to the
southeast or 140 degrees at 4 kt. Now that the circulation has
become vertically shallow, its motion will mostly be governed by
light and variable low-level steering, due to the competing
influences of a westerly wind burst to Olana's south and a weak
low-level ridge to the cyclone's north. The NHC track forecast has
been adjusted southward, mostly due to the change in the initial
position. This track attempts to blend the faster and eastward HFIP
Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) with the much slower ECMWF
(EMXI) track aids.
 
Increasing vertical wind shear from an upper-level trough, coupled
with dry air entrainment should ultimately lead to Olana's demise
over the next couple of days. Given the current degraded structure,
the latest forecast now shows the tropical cyclone degenerating into
a remnant low in 24 hours, and this could occur sooner if convection
does not soon return closer to the circulation center. Thereafter,
the model guidance shows the upper-level trough cutting off and
interacting with Olana's remnants. This could result in some
baroclinic redevelopment in 3-4 days, though the majority of the
guidance shows Olana's circulation becoming too elongated to be
trackable before that time, and dissipation is now shown in 60
hours.
 
Based on the latest forecast, Olana is expected to dissipate prior
to reaching Johnston Atoll. However, the sheared shower and
thunderstorm activity displaced well northeast of the center could
affect the area over the next couple of days, producing gusty winds
and heavy rainfall.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/1500Z 13.9N 176.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 13.7N 176.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  27/1200Z 13.5N 176.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  28/0000Z 13.8N 175.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  28/1200Z 14.3N 174.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin