632 
WTPA43 PHFO 240850
TCDCP3
 
Tropical Depression Moke Discussion Number  16
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP022026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Sun Aug 23 2026

Proxy-visible satellite images of Moke show the low-level center 
remains exposed tonight. The depression has only produced small, 
intermittent bursts of convection over the northern part of its 
circulation during the past several hours. Although Moke is centered 
well to the south of the Hawaiian Islands, NWS radar data and 
surface observations indicate that heavy rain and gusty winds are 
spreading across portions of the Big Island of Hawaii and Maui. 
Based on earlier scatterometer data and given no recent improvements 
to the satellite presentation of Moke, the initial intensity is held 
at 30 kt.
 
The depression is moving westward (275/11 kt) and should continue on
this heading for the next couple of days while being steered by a
strong low- to mid-level ridge to its north. No notable changes were
made to the NHC track forecast, which keeps the center of Moke well
south of the main Hawaiian Islands. Regardless, periods of heavy
rain and gusty winds are expected across portions of the islands
overnight through Monday.
 
Moke may not remain a tropical cyclone for much longer if it is
unable to generate more organized convection soon. Persistent
southwesterly shear and the drier surrounding mid-level environment
suggest this is unlikely to occur. Based on recent satellite trends
and the latest global model wind fields and simulated satellite
images, the updated NHC forecast now shows Moke becoming a
post-tropical remnant low in 24 h and dissipating by 48 h. Note that
this could occur even sooner than forecast.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Rain bands associated with Tropical Depression Moke will continue
over the Big Island while spreading westward across the remainder of
the Hawaiian Islands through Monday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides for the windward and
southeast Big Island, especially in steep terrain and over areas
that were affected recently by Lala.
 
2. Strong, gusty winds are likely as Moke passes south of the main
Hawaiian Islands, particularly in areas within and downslope of
higher terrain.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/0900Z 15.3N 158.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 15.6N 160.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 16.1N 162.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  25/1800Z 16.7N 165.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart