878 
WTPA43 PHFO 210844
TCDCP3
 
Tropical Depression Two-C Discussion Number   4
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP022026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Thu Aug 20 2026
 
Satellite imagery indicates that the convective coverage associated 
with Tropical Depression Two-C has changed little during the past 
several hours. Much of the deep convection remains positioned north 
of the low-level circulation. This steady satellite presentation, 
combined with the generally unchanged intensity estimates from HFO, 
JTWC, and UW-CIMSS, supports maintaining the initial intensity at 30 
kt for this advisory. Both NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance 
aircraft are scheduled to investigate the cyclone on Friday.
 
The initial motion is estimated to be 290/9 kt, and this general
motion is expected to persist into the weekend while the cyclone
remains on the southern side of the subtropical ridge. A gradual
turn toward the west is forecast later in the weekend as the ridge
builds to the north of the system. Track guidance remains in
generally good agreement, although some cross-track spread persists
as the cyclone approaches and passes south of the Hawaiian Islands
this weekend and into early next week. The updated NHC forecast is 
slightly south of the previous forecast, and lies closer to the 
consensus and the Google DeepMind ensemble mean.  

Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual strengthening 
during the next few days as the depression approaches the Hawaiian 
Islands. The cyclone is forecast to stay over warm waters and within 
a moist environment with light to moderate vertical wind shear. The 
NHC intensity forecast remains near the upper end of the intensity 
guidance and shows a gradual weakening trend beginning by early next 
week due to drier mid-level air and increasing vertical wind shear.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Tropical Depression Two-C is expected to strengthen while it 
moves west-northwestward toward the vicinity of the Hawaiian Islands 
over the next couple of days.
 
2. Heavy rainfall associated with the tropical depression will 
begin to impact the Big Island of Hawaii late Saturday night, 
spreading westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands 
Sunday into Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening 
flooding and mudslides, especially in steep terrain and over areas 
that were affected recently by Lala.  
 
3. There is a risk of wind and wave impacts in the Hawaiian Islands 
regardless of the exact track and intensity of the system. Residents 
should closely monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure that 
they have their preparedness plan in place.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/0900Z 13.0N 145.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  21/1800Z 13.5N 146.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  22/0600Z 14.3N 148.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  22/1800Z 15.1N 150.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  23/0600Z 15.8N 153.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  23/1800Z 16.3N 156.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  24/0600Z 16.6N 158.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  25/0600Z 17.3N 163.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  26/0600Z 18.3N 167.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Evans/Gibbs