000
WTPA43 PHFO 252035
TCDCP3
 
Tropical Storm Olana Discussion Number   2
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP032026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Sun Oct 25 2026

Since the prior advisory, convective activity has continued to 
expand near and to the northeast of the estimated center of the 
tropical cyclone, with first light visible imagery indicating that 
the center is likely embedded in this mass of deep convection. A 
helpful WSF-M pass at 18 UTC also showed further organization, with 
a curved band on its northwest flank, though some northeast tilt 
with height is also noted between the 37 GHz and 89 GHz channels. 
The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were T1.5/25 kt 
from JTWC and T2.0/30 kt from HFO. However, the objective intensity 
estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 30-36 kt, and given the 
improvement seen on satellite and microwave imagery since the prior 
advisory, the initial intensity is set on the higher side of the 
intensity estimates at 35 kt, making the depression Tropical Storm 
Olana.
 
Olana is estimated to be moving a bit faster to the east-northeast 
this morning, or 075/7 kt. The track reasoning is the same as this 
morning, with the combination of a low-level westerly wind burst to 
the south and a mid-latitude trough to the northwest expected to 
maintain the tropical storm on a general eastward track. The track 
guidance this cycle has shifted slower compared to the previous 
advisory, as the circulation becomes more vertically shallow, and 
the NHC track was also made slower than the previous forecast. The 
latest track forecast is on the northern side of the guidance 
envelope, favoring a blend of the faster HFIP Corrected Consensus 
Approach (HCCA) and slower ECMWF (EMXI) track guidance. Based on the 
latest track forecast, no watches are required for Johnston Atoll at 
this time, though interests there should continue to monitor the 
latest forecast updates related to this system.
 
There remains a small window for Olana to intensify a bit more in 
the short-term given its current structure, though the noted tilt 
with height seen on the WSF-M microwave pass is likely a harbinger 
of stronger vertical wind shear that the tropical cyclone will soon 
begin to experience. While both the GFS and EC-based SHIPS guidance 
are only forecasting 10-15 kt of deep-layer (200-850 mb) westerly 
shear over the next 12-36 h, the adjusted shear is much higher, 
suggesting higher shear undercutting the outflow layer. Weakening is 
expected to begin in 12-24 h, and this will likely be hastened when 
the deep-layer shear increases above 30 kt in 48-60 h. Both the GFS 
and ECMWF simulated IR show the remaining convection being fully 
stripped away from Olana's circulation during this period. Thus, the 
NHC intensity forecast shows Olana becoming a remnant low by 60 h, 
with the low opening up into a trough after 72 h, though the global 
models suggest the circulation could become too elongated to be 
considered well-defined earlier than shown here. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/2100Z 14.8N 178.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 14.9N 177.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  26/1800Z 14.4N 176.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  27/0600Z 14.1N 175.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  27/1800Z 14.3N 173.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  28/0600Z 15.0N 172.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  28/1800Z 15.6N 172.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin