000
WTPA42 PHFO 300843
TCDCP2
 
Tropical Storm Keli Discussion Number   8
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP022025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Tue Jul 29 2025

Satellite imagery shows that Keli continues to produce organized 
deep convection, and the latest subjective Dvorak numbers from SAB, 
PHFO and JTWC are a consensus 2.5/2.5.  The recent objective 
intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 30 to 40 kt.  The 
advisory intensity estimate is held at 35 kt.  The storm remains 
quite small with only about a 30 n mi extent of 34-kt winds from the 
center.
 
Keli is moving faster, with the motion estimated to be westward, or 
280/18 kt.  This faster westward motion is due to its proximity to 
the east-northeast of Iona, as well as the mid-level ridging 
located well to the north of the cyclone.  The track guidance is in 
good agreement, and the official forecast has been nudged to show a 
slightly faster forward motion.

Although Keli is hanging on as a tropical storm for the moment, it
is not likely to last for more than another day or so.  Increasing 
vertical wind shear from the outflow of Iona is likely to cause
weakening, and Keli's inflow should be soon disrupted by Iona's
low-level circulation.  The official forecast calls for weakening 
and dissipation in 36 hours or so.  The global models indicate 
that dissipation could occur a bit sooner than forecast.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0900Z 13.5N 153.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  30/1800Z 13.9N 156.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  31/0600Z 14.5N 160.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  31/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen