237 
WTPA42 PHFO 150833
TCDCP2
 
Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number  12
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Fri Aug 14 2026
 
Lala has shown little change in convective structure over the past 
several hours, although there have been some decent bursts of deep 
convection over the circulation with cloud tops as cold as -75 C. 
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured peak 700-mb 
flight-level winds of 58 kt in the northeastern quadrant and a 
minimum pressure of 991 mb. Given the broad structure of the cyclone 
and the overall satellite presentation, the initial intensity is 
held at 55 kt.
 
The initial motion is west-northwestward, or 285/11 kt. A mid-level
high pressure system anchored north of the Hawaiian Islands should
continue to steer Lala generally west-northwestward during the next
several days. Some slowing of the forward motion is possible as the
cyclone approaches the Big Island and begins to interact with the
island's terrain on Saturday. Short-term deviations in the track are
also possible during this time. After passing near or over the
southern portion of the Big Island, Lala could make a subtle turn
toward the northwest in the lee of the island before resuming a
west-northwestward motion south of the smaller islands through the
remainder of the weekend. The latest NHC track forecast is very
similar to the previous advisory and remains close to the 
multi-model consensus (HCCA) and the Google DeepMind ensemble mean.
 
Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 12 h
while environmental conditions remain generally favorable. Although
mid-level dry air continues to be a limiting factor, the inner
circulation could become somewhat more compact and organized as Lala
approaches the southern portion of the Big Island. The NHC forecast
therefore continues to show Lala reaching hurricane strength near
the time it reaches the Big Island on Saturday. Interaction with the
island's terrain should then disrupt the low-level circulation and
result in weakening, with modest vertical wind shear providing 
an additional negative influence later in the weekend as Lala 
passes south of the smaller islands. Some re-strengthening is 
forecast early next week as the cyclone remains over warm sea 
surface temperatures. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar 
to the previous advisory and remains near the middle of the 
guidance envelope.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Damaging hurricane-force winds are expected on the Big Island of
Hawaii Saturday, with the strongest wind gusts expected in areas of
higher terrain. Preparations should be rushed to completion this
evening before tropical-storm-force winds begin.
Tropical-storm-force winds are also expected across portions of the
smaller islands this weekend.
 
2. Heavy rainfall will continue across the Big Island and spread 
westward across the remainder of the island chain this weekend. This 
rainfall will produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, 
especially in areas of steep terrain.
 
3. Large and dangerous waves are expected across portions of the
Hawaiian Islands this weekend. Surf is already building along
east-facing shores and will increase along exposed southern shores
as Lala passes through the region. This heavy surf may cause
localized coastal flooding and significant beach erosion.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0900Z 17.8N 153.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 18.2N 154.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  16/0600Z 19.3N 156.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  16/1800Z 20.2N 159.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  17/0600Z 20.7N 162.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  17/1800Z 20.8N 164.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  18/0600Z 20.9N 166.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  19/0600Z 21.4N 170.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  20/0600Z 23.0N 172.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs