Tropical Storm Lala Forecast Discussion
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Español: Aviso Publico Discusión |
774 WTPA42 PHFO 260236 TCDCP2 Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number 55 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM HST Tue Aug 25 2026 Lala continues to exhibit a symmetric convective structure as it moves over cooler waters. An ASCAT pass from around 2200 UTC captured much of Lala’s inner core and revealed max winds at around 40 kt. Objective Dvorak estimates range from 45-55 kt, while subjective Dvorak estimates from JTWC and HFO reflect a weakening trend with a 2.0/2.5 and 2.5/3.0, respectively. Given the quality of the ASCAT pass, the initial intensity was held steady at 45 kt. The motion of the cyclone remains slow as it approaches the International Dateline. The initial motion was estimated at 295/5 kt. Lala continues to be guided to the west-northwest by a high pressure ridge centered over the central Pacific, just to the northeast of the storm. Global forecast models suggest that the ridge will remain stagnant over the next couple of days, which should keep Lala moving at a slow speed as it rounds the ridge’s westward flank. Eventually, Lala will gain forward speed as it moves away from the ridge’s influence and turns more northward. Little change was made to the track forecast from the previous advisory. The storm is expected to move over continuously cooling waters before encountering a more hostile vertical wind shear environment over the next 24 hours. By Thursday, Lala is anticipated to become post-tropical, with simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF suggesting that the storm will ultimately dissipate over the weekend. Lala’s dissipation time was moved up roughly 24 hours from the previous forecast, otherwise the overall intensity trend was generally left intact. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 35.2N 177.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 35.6N 178.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 36.1N 178.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 37.0N 179.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 37.7N 179.9E 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 28/1200Z 38.3N 179.0E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/0000Z 39.0N 177.8E 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/0000Z 43.5N 175.0E 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Evans/Cangialosi