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WTPA42 PHFO 250252
TCDCP2
 
Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number  18
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Thu Sep 24 2026
 
Nolo's structure on satellite imagery continues to gradually 
improve with a banding-type eye trying to develop on visible 
satellite imagery. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters have been 
flying through Nolo this afternoon, and found a peak flight-level 
wind of 71 kt and a minimum central pressure down to 984 mb in their 
most recent fix. These values are enough to upgrade Nolo to a 
hurricane this advisory, with an initial intensity of 65 kt. 
 
The storm is finally moving more consistently to the north-northeast 
with an estimated motion at 020 degrees at 4 kt. There is little 
change to the track reasoning this cycle, with a deep-layer trough 
located to the northwest of Nolo helping to steer it slowly to the 
north-northeast over the next 24-36 h. Thereafter, this trough cuts 
off to the west of the Hawaiian islands and moves westward out of 
the way, allowing mid-level ridging to build back in north of Nolo. 
The net result of this synoptic change is that Nolo is expected to 
make a sharp turn to the west, or even west-southwest in the 48-72 h 
time frame. However, the aforementioned cutoff low still limits how 
far west this mid-level ridging is able to extend, and Nolo will 
likely begin to gain latitude in the day 4-5 day time frame. The 
track guidance has made a rather substantial southward shift 
compared to the previous cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been 
shifted southward, though it remains on the northern side of the 
guidance envelope. This track forecast lies closest to the Google 
DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI) which is actually a northern outlier 
this cycle, so it's possible future southward adjustments may be 
necessary.

Even though Nolo is now a hurricane, the Air Force Reconnaissance 
aircraft has yet to report a closed eyewall in either of its fixes 
through the hurricane, and the wind field is a little bit on the 
broader side. However, environmental conditions appear quite 
favorable with low shear, sufficently warm sea-surface temperatures 
and enough deep-layer moisture to support robust intensification. 
The NHC intensity forecast continues to forecast significant 
intensification, and now shows a peak intensity of 115 kt as Nolo 
turns westward in the 48-72 h time frame. This intensity forecast 
is a blend of the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) 
and HAFS-A/B runs, even though the HCCA remains the highest outlier 
in the intensity guidance this cycle. At long range, vertical wind 
shear is expected to increase, and the NHC intensity shows 
weakening beginning by day 5. 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Nolo is expected to pass near or just south of the Big Island of 
Hawaii on Saturday as a major hurricane.  Tropical storm conditions 
are expected to begin on the Big Island Friday night with hurricane 
conditions possible on Saturday, particularly in areas of steep 
terrain.  Residents should follow advice given by local officials, 
including evacuating if told to do so.
 
2. The time to finish preparations for significant heavy rain and 
flooding impacts on the Big Island is now as heavy rain increases in 
both coverage and intensity today and Friday. Periods of heavy rain 
are expected to continue across the Big Island and Maui through the 
weekend. Life-threatening, catastrophic flooding and mudslides are 
possible, especially in areas of steep terrain across the eastern 
and southern portions of the Big Island and Maui. Across the 
remainder of Hawaii, lesser rainfall totals are expected, with 
isolated flooding possible. 
 
3. Large and damaging waves are likely along portions of the
Big Island's coastline into the weekend.
 
4. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Maui County where
tropical storm conditions are possible beginning on Saturday.
Interests elsewhere in Hawaii should closely monitor the latest
forecast updates and ensure that they have their preparedness plans
in place.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0300Z 15.1N 155.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 15.7N 155.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  26/0000Z 16.6N 155.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  26/1200Z 17.1N 155.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  27/0000Z 17.0N 156.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  27/1200Z 16.9N 157.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  28/0000Z 16.9N 159.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
 96H  29/0000Z 18.6N 163.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
120H  30/0000Z 21.7N 164.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Papin