000
WTPA42 PHFO 250849
TCDCP2
 
Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number  52
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Mon Aug 24 2026

Lala continues to produce shallow to moderate convection in curved 
bands around its center. The coldest cloud tops are located on the 
northern side of the circulation, where recent scatterometer data 
indicate the strongest winds are occurring. There are several wind 
vectors from the ASCAT-B pass at or slightly above 40 kt, and based 
on these winds, the initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt.
 
Additional slow weakening is anticipated during the next couple of 
days while Lala moves over gradually cooler waters in a low shear 
environment. After 48 h, increasing shear along with a drier and 
more stable surrounding air mass should induce a slightly faster 
rate of weakening. These hostile conditions are expected to cause 
Lala to lose organized convection and ultimately degenerate to a 
remnant low by 72 h, if not sooner. No changes were made to the NHC 
intensity forecast or the timing of post-tropical transition.
 
Lala is moving slowly northwestward (325/5 kt) on the southwest side
of a weak mid-level ridge. This steering pattern should prevail for
the next few days, keeping Lala on a slow northwestward heading
through midweek. By days 4-5, the system is forecast to turn
northward and accelerate as the ridge builds to its east. Little
change was made to the official track forecast through 60 h, which
remains near the center of the guidance envelope. Thereafter, some
westward adjustments were made to the post-tropical portion of the
forecast to trend closer to the latest multi-model consensus aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0900Z 34.7N 175.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  25/1800Z 35.0N 176.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  26/0600Z 35.4N 177.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  26/1800Z 35.9N 178.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  27/0600Z 36.6N 179.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  27/1800Z 37.4N 179.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  28/0600Z 38.2N 179.6E   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  29/0600Z 40.2N 177.5E   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  30/0600Z 44.5N 176.0E   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart