000
WTPA42 PHFO 241436
TCDCP2
 
Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number  49
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Mon Aug 24 2026
 
Lala has remained steady state with a curved band that wraps about
three-quarters of the way around the center. Convection persists
even as the storm traverses cooler sea surface temperatures.
Satellite intensity estimates from HFO, JTWC, and UW-CIMSS range
from 45 to 62 kt. Scatterometer data that arrived shortly after the
previous advisory shows a peak wind of 44 kt, and was used to adjust
the wind radii on the western side of the system. Given the
steady-state satellite appearance and a blend of the estimates and
scatterometer data, the initial intensity is held at 55 kt.
 
The storm is moving slowly northwestward (320/4 kt). A slow and 
generally northwestward motion is expected to continue for the next 
several days while the system is steered by a ridge to the 
northeast. The latest NHC forecast track shows Lala crossing the 
International Date Line just beyond 72 h. The official track 
forecast was nudged slightly to the left in the short term and lies 
close to the latest HCCA consensus aid.
 
Lala has continued to produce convection over cool sea surface
temperatures within a low wind shear environment. As SSTs decrease
further along the forecast track, the cyclone will increasingly
struggle to sustain this convective activity. Thus, a slow weakening
trend is forecast to continue during the next few days. The official
intensity forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope and
is similar to the previous prediction. Simulated infrared satellite
imagery from the global models suggests Lala will fail to maintain
organized deep convection between days 3 and 4, and the system is
forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by 96 h.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/1500Z 33.4N 175.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 33.9N 175.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 34.6N 176.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  26/0000Z 35.0N 177.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  26/1200Z 35.6N 178.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  27/0000Z 36.3N 179.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  27/1200Z 37.2N 179.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  28/1200Z 38.9N 179.0E   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  29/1200Z 41.4N 176.1E   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly