000
WTPA42 PHFO 212033
TCDCP2
 
Hurricane Lala Discussion Number  38
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Fri Aug 21 2026
 
The combined influence of strong southwesterly vertical wind shear 
and intrusions of dry air is more clearly evident on infrared and 
visible satellite imagery. An earlier microwave pass also indicates 
the cyclone vortex is tilted in response to the strong shear. The 
subjective Dvorak estimates from HFO and JTWC are both T4.5/77 kt, 
with objective satellite intensity estimates near 80 kt. Based on 
these data, the analyzed intensity for this advisory is 80 kt.
 
Lala is again moving at a slightly faster forward speed toward the 
north-northeast at 030/12. The overall track forecast philosophy has 
not changed, however the long-range track will be more sensitive 
than usual to errors at early forecast hours given the geometry of 
the track. By Saturday, a quick turn to the north and then the 
northwest is expected as the trough exits to the east and a 
mid-level ridge builds just south of the Aleutian Islands. Lala will 
then decelerate slightly as the ridge remains the primary steering 
feature through the remainder of the forecast period. The track 
forecast is once again adjusted slightly to the right of the 
previous forecast, mainly due to the current motion towards the 
north-northeast. The new track forecast is a blend of the 
interpolated previous forecast (OFCI) and the HCCA and TCVN aids.

Even though southwesterly shear is forecast to subside during the 
next 18-24 h, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) will cool gradually as 
Lala gains latitude, and thus the current weakening trend will 
continue. Cooling upper tropospheric temperatures could compensate 
somewhat for the cooler SSTs, allowing Lala to maintain deep 
convection and weaken at a more gradual pace. The intensity forecast 
remains on the higher side of the guidance envelope, and is largely 
unchanged from the previous advisory.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/2100Z 28.6N 170.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 29.9N 171.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 31.0N 171.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  23/0600Z 31.9N 173.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  23/1800Z 32.6N 173.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  24/0600Z 33.2N 174.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  24/1800Z 33.8N 175.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  25/1800Z 35.4N 177.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  26/1800Z 37.3N 178.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Mahoney/Kelly