000
WTPA42 PHFO 170237
TCDCP2
 
Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number  19
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Sun Aug 16 2026
 
Lala has shown very little change in convective structure over the 
past several hours as it begins to move away from the main Hawaiian 
Islands. Deep convection remains over the center of the circulation, 
with a large fragmented convective band wrapping into the center 
across the northern and western semicircles. The latest subjective 
Current Intensity estimates from HFO and JTWC are T3.5/55 kt, with 
objective intensity estimates ranging from 35 to 50 kt. Based on 
these data and the steady trend in satellite presentation, the 
initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 55 kt for this 
advisory.
 
Lala is moving westward, or 265/14 kt. A strong subtropical ridge 
positioned north of the cyclone should maintain Lala on a generally 
westward motion through the first half of the week. Thereafter, a 
weakness is forecast to develop in the ridge in response to a 
shortwave trough moving across the northern Pacific, causing Lala to 
slow and gradually turn toward the northwest and then northward 
during the latter half of the week. Track forecast confidence 
remains relatively high through the first half of the week, but 
decreases thereafter due to run-to-run inconsistencies in the models 
and considerable cross-track spread among the guidance. The latest 
NHC track forecast is very close to or slightly left of the previous 
advisory through midweek, then follows a blend of the previous 
forecast, the multi-model consensus (HCCA), and the Google DeepMind 
ensemble mean thereafter to account for the increasing uncertainty.
 
Little change in intensity is expected during the next day or two as 
Lala continues westward away from the main Hawaiian Islands and 
south of the eastern portion of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands. 
Thereafter, the intensity guidance continues to indicate a 
strengthening trend, with Lala forecast to regain hurricane 
intensity around midweek as it begins to turn northwestward. 
Although the cyclone will remain over warm waters, mid-level dry air 
and increasing westerly vertical wind shear could limit the amount 
of strengthening that occurs later in the forecast period. 
Nevertheless, much of the guidance continues to show Lala 
strengthening as it approaches portions of the Northwestern Hawaiian 
Islands later in the week. The latest NHC intensity forecast is 
similar to the previous advisory through midweek, then trends toward 
the middle of the guidance envelope during the latter half of the 
forecast period.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, will persist 
over Kauai County into the overnight period. The strongest winds 
will occur over areas of higher terrain.
 
2. Rain will continue to taper off across the Big Island and Maui by 
tonight, however additional areas of flash flooding and mudslides 
will be possible. Heavy rainfall and the potential for flooding and 
mudslides from Lala will continue across the rest of the island 
chain through later tonight or early Monday.
 
3. Large waves generated by Lala will continue to impact exposed 
shores of the Hawaiian Islands through tonight, with a gradual 
downward trend expected from east to west by Monday. This heavy surf 
may cause localized coastal flooding and significant beach erosion.
 
4. Use caution after Lala passes as deadly hazards remain, including 
flooded areas and downed power lines. If you use a generator, be 
sure it is placed outside at least 20 feet away from doors, windows, 
and garages to avoid deadly carbon monoxide poisoning.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/0300Z 20.7N 161.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 20.8N 163.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  18/0000Z 20.6N 165.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  18/1200Z 20.6N 167.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  19/0000Z 20.7N 168.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  19/1200Z 21.1N 170.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  20/0000Z 22.1N 171.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  21/0000Z 23.9N 173.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  22/0000Z 25.9N 173.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Evans