000
WTPA42 PHFO 240232
TCDCP2
 
Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number  47
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Sun Aug 23 2026

Lala remains a well organized tropical storm despite moving over 
cool waters. The system is maintaining a partial eyewall that wraps 
a little more than halfway around the center, along with 
numerous fragmented outer rainbands. There has been little change in 
the latest satellite intensity estimates, and a blend of the latest 
objective and subjective estimates supports holding the initial 
intensity steady at 55 kt. An ASCAT-C pass from around 21Z was 
helpful in adjusting the 34- and 50-kt wind radii.

The storm is moving slowly northwestward at about 6 kt. An even 
slower northwestward motion is expected during the next few days as 
Lala is forecast to remain located just southwest of a strong 
subtropical ridge, not far from the ridge axis where the steering 
currents are weak. This motion should cause Lala to cross the 
International Date Line around the middle of the week. Although the 
models show the same general theme, there is a fair amount of 
cross-track spread beyond 72 hours. The NHC track forecast is 
similar to the previous one and lies closer to the left side of the 
guidance envelope, near the Google DeepMind, HCCA, and TVCA aids.

Lala is expected to weaken over the next several days as it moves 
over progressively cooler waters, but the weakening trend will 
likely be slow since it is expected to remain in generally low wind 
shear conditions. The GFS and ECMWF models show the storm losing 
organized deep convection around the time it nears the International 
Date Line in a few days. Based on that guidance, the transition to a 
post-tropical cyclone has been moved up to day 4.  Otherwise, this 
intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one and near the 
middle of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/0300Z 33.1N 174.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 33.5N 175.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 34.3N 175.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 34.8N 176.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 35.4N 177.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  26/1200Z 36.0N 178.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  27/0000Z 36.6N 179.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  28/0000Z 38.2N 179.5E   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  29/0000Z 39.8N 177.9E   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi