000
WTPA42 PHFO 160854
TCDCP2
 
Hurricane Lala Discussion Number  16
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Sat Aug 15 2026
 
Lala appears to have peaked in intensity earlier this afternoon
while passing near South Point of the Big Island. Since that time,
the hurricane has continued northwestward just offshore of the
Leeward Coast of the Big Island, while its satellite presentation
has gradually degraded. Despite the less organized appearance,
subjective Dvorak Current Intensity estimates from both HFO and JTWC
remain at 4.0/65 kt, which align with the latest objective estimates
from UW-CIMSS. Based on these estimates, the initial intensity is
held at 65 kt.
 
Lala continues to move northwestward just offshore of the Leeward
Coast of the Big Island, with an initial motion of 310/13 kt. A
gradual turn toward the west and an increase in forward speed are
expected on Sunday as the influence of the Big Island terrain
diminishes and Lala moves westward along the southern periphery of a
strong subtropical ridge. This general motion should continue
through early next week. By the middle of next week, a shortwave
trough moving across the northern Pacific is forecast to weaken the
ridge, causing Lala to slow and gradually turn toward the
west-northwest and northwest. Forecast confidence in the track,
however, begins to decrease by day 5 due to increasing cross-track
spread among the guidance. The latest NHC forecast lies close to the
Google DeepMind ensemble mean and multi-model consensus (HCCA) aids
throughout the forecast period.
 
Lala appears to have peaked in intensity earlier while passing near
South Point of the Big Island. The hurricane could maintain its
intensity for a few more hours, but weakening is expected by early
Sunday as Lala continues to pull away from the Big Island. Dry
mid-level air along with moderate vertical wind shear should
contribute to a deterioration of the convective structure and
support additional weakening. Some re-strengthening could occur
after 48 hours, and the NHC intensity forecast is close to the
previous advisory.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Damaging winds are expected to continue on the Big Island of 
Hawaii into the overnight hours, with the strongest wind gusts 
expected in areas of higher terrain. Residents are urged to stay in 
their shelter through tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds with gusts 
to near or up to hurricane strength will persist across portions of 
the smaller islands through Sunday.
 
2. Heavy rainfall, with life-threatening flooding and mudslides,
especially in areas of steep terrain, will continue tonight into
early Sunday over the Big Island and Maui. This heavy rain and flood
risk will continue to spread westward across the island chain
through Sunday.
 
3. Large and dangerous waves are expected to persist across portions
of the Hawaiian Islands through the weekend. Surf is building along
east-facing shores and will increase along exposed southern shores
as Lala passes through the region. This heavy surf may cause
localized coastal flooding and significant beach erosion.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/0900Z 19.6N 157.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  16/1800Z 20.1N 159.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  17/0600Z 20.5N 161.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  17/1800Z 20.5N 164.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  18/0600Z 20.4N 166.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  18/1800Z 20.3N 168.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  19/0600Z 20.4N 170.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  20/0600Z 21.5N 173.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  21/0600Z 23.1N 176.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Evans