113 
WTPA42 PHFO 160254
TCDCP2
 
Hurricane Lala Discussion Number  15
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Sat Aug 15 2026
 
Lala has strengthened a little more this afternoon as it passes just 
south of the Big Island. The eye remains well defined in radar 
imagery, with the northern eyewall currently brushing South Point. 
Recent Doppler radar velocity estimates indicate that winds have 
increased within the eastern eyewall, with upwards of 80 to 85 kt 
around or just under 5,000 ft depicted. Based primarily on these 
radar data, the initial intensity is raised to 70 kt for this 
advisory.

Recent radar fixes indicate that Lala is moving northwestward, or 
320/8 kt, as it continue to interact with the terrain of the Big 
Island. Lala is now passing within 50 n mi of South Point on the Big 
Island, where the interaction of the large-scale northeasterly flow 
with the island terrain, along with a lee-side low northwest of the 
hurricane, could support this motion persisting tonight. These 
terrain-induced deviations may not be well represented by the 
official forecast guidance. For this reason, the NHC forecast lies 
to the right of the track guidance through 12 h. Thereafter, the 
official forecast trends back toward the multi-model consensus 
(HCCA) and Google DeepMind ensemble mean as Lala turns westward and 
accelerates away from the Big Island on Sunday. This westward motion 
is expected to continue through Tuesday. A shortwave trough moving 
across the northern Pacific around the middle of next week may 
weaken the ridge enough to allow Lala to turn toward the 
west-northwest and then northwest, potentially approaching western 
portions of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, but there remains 
quite a bit of track guidance spread around day 5.
 
Lala could maintain its intensity during the next few hours while it 
passes south of the Big Island, but weakening is expected shortly 
thereafter. As the cyclone moves west of the island, entrainment of 
dry mid-level air, along with the potential for downsloping flow 
from the Big Island to enter the circulation, could disrupt the 
cyclone's convective structure and contribute to weakening. Despite 
the forecast weakening, Lala has a large wind field extending well 
north of the center, and the interaction of this flow with the 
terrain of the islands will continue to produce strong winds across 
portions of the island chain as Lala passes south of the smaller 
islands. Therefore, significant wind impacts could continue despite 
the expected weakening trend. Some re-strengthening could occur 
after 48 hours, and the NHC forecast is very similar to the previous 
advisory.

NHC will continue to issue hourly position updates via the Tropical
Cyclone Update product (HFOTCUCP2) as long as the eye remains well
defined in radar imagery.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Damaging hurricane-force winds are expected to continue on the
Big Island of Hawaii into the overnight hours, with the strongest
wind gusts expected in areas of higher terrain. Residents are urged
to stay in their shelter through tonight. Tropical-storm-force
winds with gusts to near or up to hurricane strength will
persist across portions of the smaller islands through Sunday.
 
2. Heavy rainfall will continue over the Big Island this
evening and then spread westward across the remainder of the
island chain tonight and Sunday. This rainfall will produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.
 
3. Large and dangerous waves are expected to persist across portions 
of the Hawaiian Islands through the weekend. Surf is building along 
east-facing shores and will increase along exposed southern shores 
as Lala passes through the region. This heavy surf may cause 
localized coastal flooding and significant beach erosion.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/0300Z 18.7N 156.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 19.6N 157.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  17/0000Z 20.2N 160.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  17/1200Z 20.3N 163.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  18/0000Z 20.2N 165.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  18/1200Z 20.1N 167.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  19/0000Z 20.3N 169.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  20/0000Z 21.5N 172.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  21/0000Z 22.9N 175.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs