000
WTPA42 PHFO 150259
TCDCP2
 
Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number  11
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Fri Aug 14 2026
 
Lala has changed little in organization during the past several 
hours, with most of the deep convection remaining over and north of 
the center. However, data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane 
Hunter aircraft indicate that the cyclone has strengthened some this 
afternoon. Pressure observations from nearby NDBC buoy 51004 have 
also been useful in assessing the cyclone as it passes close to the 
station. Based on a blend of the aircraft data, buoy observations, 
and overall satellite presentation, the initial intensity is set at 
55 kt.
 
The initial motion is west-northwestward, or 290/10 kt. A mid-level
high pressure system anchored north of the Hawaiian Islands should
continue to steer Lala generally west-northwestward during the next
several days. Some slowing of the forward motion is possible as the
cyclone approaches the Big Island and begins to interact with the
island's terrain on Saturday. Short-term deviations in the track are
also possible during this time. After passing near or over the
southern portion of the Big Island, Lala could make a subtle turn
toward the northwest in the lee of the island before resuming a
west-northwestward motion south of the smaller islands through the
remainder of the weekend. The latest NHC track forecast is very
similar to the previous advisory and remains close to the mult-model
consensus (HCCA) and the Google DeepMind ensemble mean.
 
Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 12 to 24 h
while environmental conditions remain generally favorable. Although
mid-level dry air continues to be a limiting factor, the inner
circulation could become somewhat more compact and organized as Lala
approaches the southern portion of the Big Island. The NHC forecast
therefore continues to show Lala reaching hurricane strength near
the time it reaches the Big Island on Saturday. Interaction with the
island's terrain should then disrupt the low-level circulation and
result in weakening, with increasing vertical wind shear associated
with an upper-level low providing an additional negative influence
later in the weekend. Some re-strengthening is forecast early next
week as vertical wind shear relaxes and Lala remains over warm sea
surface temperatures. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar
to the previous advisory and remains near the middle- to upper-end
of the guidance envelope.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Damaging hurricane-force winds are expected on the Big Island of 
Hawaii Saturday, with the strongest wind gusts expected in areas of 
higher terrain. Preparations should be rushed to completion this 
evening before tropical-storm-force winds begin.  
Tropical-storm-force winds are also expected across portions of the 
smaller islands this weekend.
 
2. Heavy rainfall will reach the Big Island this evening and spread
westward across the remainder of the island chain this weekend. This
rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides,
especially in areas of steep terrain.
 
3. Large and dangerous waves are expected across portions of the
Hawaiian Islands this weekend. Surf is already building along
east-facing shores and will increase along exposed southern shores
as Lala passes through the region. This heavy surf may cause
localized coastal flooding and significant beach erosion.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0300Z 17.6N 152.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 18.0N 154.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  16/0000Z 18.8N 155.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  16/1200Z 20.0N 158.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  17/0000Z 20.7N 161.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  17/1200Z 20.9N 163.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  18/0000Z 21.0N 166.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  19/0000Z 21.5N 170.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  20/0000Z 22.8N 173.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs