000
WTPA42 PHFO 121502
TCDCP2
 
Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C Discussion Number   1
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Wed Aug 12 2026
 
 
The disturbance well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands
is expected to become a tropical storm within the next day or so
and be near the Islands by late Friday.  Given the potential for
significant impacts over the Hawaiian Islands, Potential Tropical
Cyclone advisories are being initiated at this time.  The system's
cloud pattern is elongated from southwest to northeast with most of
the deep convection well to the southwest of the center.  The
disturbance currently lacks sufficiently organized convection to be
classified as a tropical cyclone, and the Dvorak classifications
from Honolulu are T1.0/1.0.  Scatterometer data suggests that the
intensity is near 30 kt,
 
Satellite fixes indicate that the system is moving generally
westward and the initial motion estimate is 270/9 kt.  Dynamical
models show a mid-level high pressure system persisting to the
north of the disturbance.  This steering pattern should result in
a generally west-northwestward track for the next several days.
The simple and corrected model consensus and Google DeepMind track
predictions are in reasonable agreement, and the official forecast
follows this guidance closely.  Given that the system is still in
the formative stage, the precise track is still somewhat
uncertain.
 
The atmospheric and oceanic environment look conducive for gradual
strengthening during the next few days.  Based on the intensity
models, the system is expected to be nearing hurricane strength by
the time it nears the Hawaiian Islands.  However, an upper-level
low/trough could limit strengthening while the system passes near
or over the Islands.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later
today or tonight and strengthen while it moves west-northwestward
near or over the Hawaiian Islands late this week and this weekend.
Although it is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude
of impacts, residents should closely monitor the latest forecast
updates and ensure that they have their preparedness plan in place.
 
2. Heavy rainfall associated with the system is expected to begin
to impact the Big Island Friday, spreading westward into Maui on
Saturday, and across Lanai, Molokai, Oahu and Kauai on Sunday.  This
rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides,
especially in areas of steep terrain.
 
3. There is an increasing risk of wind and wave impacts in the
Hawaiian Islands regardless of the exact track and intensity of the
system.  Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watches may be required for
portions of the Hawaiian Islands tonight or early Thursday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/1500Z 15.0N 141.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  13/0000Z 15.3N 142.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  13/1200Z 15.9N 144.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  14/0000Z 16.9N 145.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  14/1200Z 17.9N 148.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  15/0000Z 18.6N 150.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  15/1200Z 19.1N 153.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  16/1200Z 20.6N 158.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  17/1200Z 22.3N 163.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch