000
WTPA42 PHFO 152044
TCDCP2
 
Hurricane Lala Discussion Number  14
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Sat Aug 15 2026
 
Lala's radar and satellite presentation has improved since earlier
this morning, including a ragged eye appearing in visible and
infrared satellite images. The Dvorak intensity estimate from WFO
Honolulu increased to T4.0/65 kt at 1800 UTC, and radar data from
the South Point, Hawaii, site have been showing patches of 
winds around 70 kt at 8,000 to 10,000 ft to the northeast of 
the center. Based on this data, Lala was upgraded to a hurricane on 
the 9 AM HST (1900 UTC) Tropical Cyclone Update, and the initial 
intensity is still estimated to be 65 kt.
 
Recent radar fixes of Lala's center suggest the hurricane is
feeling the influence of the Big Island of Hawaii, and it's now
moving more slowly toward the northwest (305/7 kt). Dynamical model
fields continue to show the center getting pulled northwestward
into or near the Big Island later this afternoon while at the same
time a lee-side trough or broad low forms west of the island. This
will likely cause a discontinuous track that is not reflected in
the official forecast points or track forecast cone. This also
makes it unclear if Lala will actually make a landfall on the Big
Island. Whatever is left of the cyclone after interacting with the
Big Island is expected to turn westward on Sunday and continue on
that track through Tuesday. A shortwave trough moving across the
northern Pacific around the middle of next week may weaken the ridge
enough to allow Lala to turn toward the west-northwest and then
northwest, potentially approaching western portions of the
Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, but there is quite a bit of track
guidance spread around day 5.
 
Lala could strengthen a little more over the next few hours before
the circulation becomes disrupted by the Big Island. The
interaction is expected to cause the cyclone to weaken
significantly, and the NHC intensity forecast has been lowered a
bit while Lala moves south of the remainder of the main Hawaiian
Islands. Some re-strengthening could occur after 48 hours, and the
NHC forecast is closest to the Google DeepMind ensemble mean.
 
NHC will continue to issue hourly position updates via the
Tropical Cyclone Update product (HFOTCUCP2) as long as the eye 
remains well defined in radar imagery.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Damaging hurricane-force winds are expected on the Big Island of
Hawaii today, with the strongest wind gusts expected in areas
of higher terrain. Residents are urged to stay in their shelter 
through tonight. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are also
spreading across portions of the smaller islands and should
continue through Sunday.
 
2. Heavy rainfall will continue to overspread the Big Island this
afternoon and then spread westward across the remainder of the
island chain tonight and Sunday. This rainfall will produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.
 
3. Large and dangerous waves are expected across portions of the
Hawaiian Islands this weekend. Surf is building along east-facing
shores and will increase along exposed southern shores as Lala
passes through the region. This heavy surf may cause localized
coastal flooding and significant beach erosion.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/2100Z 18.2N 155.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 19.3N 157.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  16/1800Z 20.0N 159.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  17/0600Z 20.1N 162.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  17/1800Z 20.2N 164.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  18/0600Z 20.2N 166.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  18/1800Z 20.3N 168.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  19/1800Z 21.3N 171.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  20/1800Z 23.1N 173.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Berg