000
WTPA41 PHFO 281435
TCDCP1
 
Tropical Storm Fausto Discussion Number  39
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP062026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Tue Jul 28 2026
 
Fausto is continuing to weaken due to the effects of 25 kt of 
southwesterly vertical wind shear. The low-level center is exposed 
to the southwest of the convective mass, and both scatterometer and 
synthetic aperture radar data indicate the circulation is becoming 
elongated. While the Hurricane Hunter aircraft previously in the 
storm did not re-sample the maximum winds to the northeast, it did 
report that the central pressure had risen to near 1004 mb. Based on 
this, decreasing satellite intensity estimates, and continuity from 
the previous advisory, the initial intensity is reduced to a 
possibly generous 50 kt.

The initial motion is now 280/12. As Fausto weakens, the low-level 
ridge to the north should steer the cyclone or its remnants 
generally west-northwestward for the next several days as shown by 
the track guidance. The new track forecast is similar to the 
previous forecast, but a little slower, and it lies near the 
southern edge of the track guidance envelope close to the HFIP 
Corrected Consensus (HCCA) and Google DeepMind forecasts. On the 
forecast track, Fausto should pass to the north of the Hawaiian 
Islands tonight through late Wednesday.

An already hostile environment is forecast to get more hostile, with 
the current strong shear over Fausto increasing during the next 72 h 
as the cyclone moves into a drier mid-level air mass. This 
combination should cause additional weakening, and all of the 
intensity guidance agrees with this. Fausto is expected to weaken to 
a depression by 48 h and then degenerate to a remnant low by 72 h. 
After that time, the circulation should weaken to a trough. The new 
intensity forecast has only minor adjustments from the previous 
forecast.

 
Key Messages:
 
1. Fausto is expected to continue weakening as it approaches the
Hawaiian Islands this week. Although the current forecast indicates
that the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall will remain north of
the islands, interests across Hawaii should continue to monitor the
progress of Fausto.
 
2. Surf generated by Fausto will continue to build westward
across Hawaii along exposed east-facing shores through today
as Fausto approaches and begins to pass north of the islands.
Large surf and strong currents will lead to dangerous conditions
along exposed shores. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/1500Z 21.9N 151.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 22.3N 153.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  29/1200Z 22.7N 155.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  30/0000Z 23.2N 158.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  30/1200Z 23.7N 160.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  31/0000Z 24.4N 163.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  31/1200Z 25.0N 165.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven