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Tropical Storm Nicole Local Statement Advisory Number 15
National Weather Service Melbourne FL  AL172022
420 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

This product covers East Central Florida

**TROPICAL STORM NICOLE NOW CENTERED OVER NORTH FLORIDA**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - All tropical watches and warnings have been canceled

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 90 miles west-northwest of Leesburg FL
    - 29.4N 83.2W
    - Storm Intensity 45 mph
    - Movement Northwest or 315 degrees at 15 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

As Nicole moves further from the area, winds will continue to diminish
across east central Florida. Occasional gusts of 30 to 35 mph in showers 
will be possible through nightfall. 

A Coastal Flood Warning is now in effect for all the coast from
Flagler Beach southward to Jupiter Inlet. Large breaking waves of 6 to
8 feet will continue along with numerous life-threatening rip
currents.

A High Surf Advisory is in effect through early Friday. Winds and high
surf will combine with the higher astronomical tide to bring moderate
beach erosion around the next high tide, which will next occur from
900 PM to 945 PM tonight.

High water inundation of some low lying coastal areas is possible.
Tidal flooding may also be enhanced around Sebastian Inlet, Ponce
Inlet and the Halifax River, and the Intracoastal Waterway. Vulnerable
coastal structures could be compromised or collapse!

Coastal areas of Volusia County remain particularly vulnerable to
additional beach erosion. Damaged sea walls may be further
compromised.

Dangerous surf will create a potentially life-threatening situation!
Small craft operators should stay in port until winds and seas subside
late this week.

Strong northeast winds combined with the heavy rainfall have pushed
the Saint Johns River back to Major Flood Stage at Astor, leading to a
crest of 4.52 feet earlier this morning. Winds have shifted
southeasterly, which has allowed the river to flow north again and
thus levels have dropped slightly below 4.3 feet, but will remain near
this level into the weekend. Levels at Deland remain in Moderate Flood
Stage and have steadied near 5.2 feet, but an additional rise is
expected through the weekend into early next week, potentially
reaching near Major Flood Stage. At Sanford, levels rose to Moderate
Flood Stage earlier this morning, but a steady decline has been
observed this afternoon. While levels remain in Minor Flood Stage, a
rise to Moderate Flood is anticipated at Sanford as rainfall from
upstream locations arrive. At Lake Harney above Geneva, Moderate Flood
Stage is observed with current levels of 9.1, and a slight rise
expected into early next week. River Flood Warnings remain in effect
for all forecast points.

Smaller rivers and creeks, such as the Little Wekiva River and Shingle
Creek have risen due to Nicole's heavy rainfall. Both sites have
reached a crest, with the Little Wekiva reporting 28.43 ft this
morning and steadily falling through Action Stage. Shingle Creek also
reported a rise and is now declining, remaining well below Action
Stage. 

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Little to no impacts are anticipated at this time across East Central 
Florida.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
RECOVERY PHASE - Do not enter evacuated areas until officials have 
given the all clear to return.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
If your home or shelter was damaged, be alert to the smell of gas 
leaks and be cautious around electrical wiring, broken glass, jagged 
metal and wood, and protruding nails and screws.

Do not attempt to return to evacuated areas until local authorities 
have inspected roads and bridges and have given the all clear. 
Hazards like downed power lines and trees, washed out roads, 
continued flooding in low lying areas and non-functioning traffic 
lights make travel difficult. 

Do not go sightseeing within impacted communities. Sightseers 
interfere with the emergency work of first responders.

When inspecting damage, use flashlights rather than candles or flamed 
lanterns. Be aware of sparks that can ignite natural gas or other 
leaking flammables.

Do not go up on your roof until the weather conditions are safe. 
Ladders can be slippery in the rain and unexpected wind gusts can 
blow you off the roof.

If using a generator, avoid carbon monoxide poisoning by following 
instructions provided by the manufacturer. Operate your generator in 
a well-ventilated space outside of your living area and away from 
open doors and windows.

Be alert for potential flooding from rising rivers and streams which 
may have yet to crest. Remain informed of the latest river forecasts 
and heed any flood watches and warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

As it pertains to this event...this will be the last local statement 
issued by the National Weather Service in Melbourne FL regarding the 
effects of tropical cyclone hazards upon the area. Refer to the 
Hazardous Weather Outlook issued by NWS Melbourne for any daily 
weather related hazards going forward.

$$

JP