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Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Advisory


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565 
WTPZ25 KNHC 182045
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152019
2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ZIHUATANEJO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO
* CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA MITA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF LORENA.  WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 104.4W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  10NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  60SE  80SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 120SE  70SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 104.4W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 104.0W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 19.2N 105.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.1N 106.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  60SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.7N 107.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 21.2N 108.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.5N 110.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 24.5N 113.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 26.6N 115.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 104.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 19/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN